I have deliberately taken a look at WWII in order to highlight the opportunities and challenges that accompanied it. I have equally shown the similarities between that war (WWII) and the present COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose is to draw lessons from history in strategizing for our future and our nation. COVID-19 must be seen as the ‘global’ minimum in the mathematical sense; we must now begin the upward trend towards greater welfare and prosperity.
My first question is this: have we built the economy we are hoping to rebuild? Largely, my response is no. So what should we be doing? In this respect, I will look at the immediate/short-run measures and then what may be considered as long-run policy measures. We are in a complex world and it is no longer possible to say ”one policy per time”. The multiplicity of problems confronting us requires simultaneous solutions: it is a general equilibrium situation. To start with, I observe over the decades that we are long in words and short in actions. That is why when you listen to great speeches from government officials, private business owners, organized private sector, labour unions, the media practitioners, even researchers and others, you will tend to say that yes Nigeria has arrived at the destination.
Some examples will suffice here: In a globalised world economy, how do you intend to move forward with mono-cultural economy? We are ridiculing ourselves with the talks on economic diversification. The truth of the matter is that we cannot survive going forward without being genuine with this policy. We must expand our production base in as many as the number of our consumables. The multiplier effects of vertical and horizontal diversification on the economy are immense.
My second example has to do with the fact that Nigeria has no effective trade policy. Consequently, our country has become a major dumping ground for foreign goods. The trade policy should back the diversification efforts. We spend billions of dollars importing basic food commodities that can be grown locally. We must grow what we eat. We need to reverse this with a robust trade policy in all its ramifications.
A better way to stimulate the Nigerian economy at this time would be to have specific and measurable objectives that can unleash the potential of Nigerians. For example, the government should focus on creating an enabling environment for businesses to thrive. This would include:
investing in the provision of consistent power supply and reducing the current cost of power for businesses;
providing easily accessible business loans to small scale businesses at reasonable interest rates;
investing in education and reskilling of the populace;
reducing bottlenecks at Nigerian ports for small scale businesses; and
Improving the transportation infrastructure and helping businesses with a long-term mortgage scheme.
The COVID-19 pandemic has presented challenges and opportunities for Nigeria and indeed African economies to leapfrog into the 4th Industrial Revolution and for the long run, that is into the future. The global health crisis has helped us to understand the extent of the structural weaknesses of our economies. Besides the current efforts to embark on strategies including ”in-depth approaches to human development, regional integration, digitalization, industrialization, economic diversification, fiscal and monetary policies, and international solidarity”, we need long run approaches to solving the underdevelopment of Nigeria. In my humble opinion, these should include the following:
a)Educational reforms: There is an urgent need for a holistic review of our educational curriculum from primary to tertiary institutions. This should respond to our environment and current needs. We must borrow a leaf from countries like Singapore, South Korea, Japan and China. We must move from education for ‘Certificates” to education for “skill development’. The quality of education available now will inform the world of how we would attain the projected future, every other thing being equal.
b)Industrialization: Nigeria should move away from being a raw material producer and exporter for the world community and become transformer of those raw materials into finished industrial goods, having passed through all the stages in the value chain. This means we can generate more employment for the youth, earn foreign exchange through export of value-added goods, provoke the rise of the standard of living, and thus eliminate poverty. This level of poverty was obvious to us all during this pandemic and the ‘END-SARS’ protest.
Let us consider another example as it relates to industrialization. The most intriguing areas, in this respect, include the pharmaceuticals where Nigeria and indeed Africa could not meet their demand aggravated by the lockdown of the producing industries following excess demand in other continents. These include drugs, beds and beddings, personal protecting equipment (PPE), medical and non-medical face-mask and other related items. It was observed that Africa was only able to meet 10 per cent of her total demand for medicines. That is worrisome!!!.
Let me add that the desired industrialization may become a mirage in the absence of a functional iron and steel industry. Let us imagine that 60 per cent of the iron and steel demanded locally is produced. Imagine also the multiplier effect of small, medium and large scale industries that will emerge. This will lead to higher national income, rise in production, phenomenal increase in employment, higher export, increase in foreign exchange earnings, improved welfare and fall in poverty level, to draw on what is described as circular flow in macroeconomics. An economy that depends almost totally on imports for her consumer, intermediate inputs and capital goods will be subjected to volatility and there is no doubt it will experience unbroken cyclical fluctuations, recession and may even experience economic depression.
c) Technology: The world is at the beginning of the 4th Industrial revolution and technological breakthrough is the key. It is characterized by robotics, artificial intelligence, machine learning, virtual reality and augmented reality among others. These technologies will shape the world of production and employment and all other human and economic activities. These are already manifesting in the educational, health, communications, transport and other sectors. This brings about once again the imperative of quality education. There is no alternative to developing a viable educational curriculum, in this respect.
d)Social-political reforms: If we are talking about rebuilding our economy, we need a holistic review of our society: the history, culture, demography etc. Remember, economy does not thrive in a chaotic environment. Our political actors do not show understanding of running a modern state.
They appear to live in a different world. For instance, the ENDSARS protest across the country is a manifestation of a deep-rooted social crisis. Have we sat down to think about it holistically, appropriately and justifiably? We have allowed political, tribal, religious, pure sentimental considerations to overshadow the more important social considerations. According to one of our erudite Professors, ”we give more weight to political than to economic considerations” in all our actions. That may not ensure democracy dividends.
In closing, may I offer some suggestions towards rebuilding a great, strong, prosperous country before the end of this century. A “rebuilding” plan that is viable, realistic and feasible will be necessary to take this economy out of incessant recessions and accelerate economic growth that will return the economy to the path of development. The following are my views on the path towards rebuilding the economy of Nigeria:
i. There is power in engaging citizens for good governance and to support economic and social development;
ii. To scale up the economy is to develop the human capacity. No nation can be better than the quality of its human beings. There are examples to buttress this across the world. Many of the industrialized countries do not have mineral resources as we do in Nigeria; the developed human capital factor midwifes their transformation from the third world to the first world. The case where our Public Tertiary institutions are under lock and key for almost a year is not acceptable;
iii. We must realize that education is a viable, veritable and useful tool to scale up economic development;
iv. Our curriculum must be geared towards developing skills and capacity which will eventually contribute to economic development. For example, the curriculum must facilitate and develop the competencies of our youth so that they can actively contribute to sustainable development;
v. Encourage civic participation to support macroeconomic policy reforms that engender growth and reduce poverty;
vi. Government should note that the economy does not thrive in an unsecured and volatile social and political environment;
vii. There must be concerted efforts by government, ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) and the people to work out a strategic plan for the nation;
viii. It is time to build trust in our polity. The level of mistrust is unmeasurable. No macroeconomic policy works without belief in the system. A situation of ”self-fulfilling prophecy” leads to nowhere;
ix. Improve our capacity to unlearn old ways of doing things, learn, and relearn better ways of doing things based on the implementation of technology in this era of change. Here, we must deploy the phenomenon of ”learning by doing”;
x. The 4th Industrial Revolution waits for nobody. We must deploy it in full scale in the production of goods and services and not just for entertainment. This is closely linked to the design of a new curriculum in all facets of our public life;
xi. Government must fall back on the people for the realization of all international development agenda such as the SDGs, Agenda 2063, etc. as well as national development goals;
xii. We must adopt entrepreneurship and